Tesla Motors aims to disrupt the $1tr electricity industry

Tesla Motors Inc. might be on the verge of disrupting two industries—autos and batteries say analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Tesla this week is expected to announce with corporate partners a plan to build a new battery factory that would take in raw materials and produce finished batteries, lowering its cost of buying and assembly individual battery cell components. Mr. Jonas said Tesla’s battery cell production has the potential to make it a major competitor in the electrical grid storage business.

Tesla has agreed to supply some of its battery cells to SolarCity Corp., SCTY +0.22% a supplier of solar panels for electricity production, that allows SolarCity customer to store power for use at night or during peak demand. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is SolarCity’s chairman.

“Tesla’s request to disrupt a trillion dollar car industry offers an adjacent opportunity to disrupt a trillion dollar electric utility industry,” Mr. Jonas said in a note titled “Nikola’s Revenge: TSLA’s New Path of Disruption.”

Tesla’s shares have surged following an adjusted $46 million fourth-quarter profit and reports of rising production capacity and demand.

Auto analyst Adam Jonas in an investors’ note on Tuesday estimated Tesla will be producing 370,000 vehicles a year by 2020, up from 22,400 last year. By 2028, the company should be over 1.1 million units of production, and Tesla’s out in service could be used as back-up grid storage for the utility industry. Much of the volume is connected to Tesla’s planned “Gen 3” vehicle, which the company aims to put out in 2017 with 200 miles of electric range and a starting price around $35,000.

His bear case for Tesla still estimates that the company will be making 220,000 vehicles a year by 2020, warranting a $100 a share target. Porsche, a division of Volkswagen AG VOW3.XE +1.17% , sold a record 162,145 vehicles in 2013, for comparison.

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